06/24/2024 / By Richard Brown
Four refineries in southern Russia were targeted Thursday night, June 20, in one of the largest drone swarm attacks ever reported since the beginning of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine.
Brent crude futures remained steady on despite rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, which seems counterintuitive given that escalating war risks typically lead to supply disruptions. One facility was damaged, with 70 drones intercepted and destroyed over Crimea and the Black Sea, and 43 over the Krasnodar region, according to the Russian Defense Ministry on Telegram.
They did not specify the total number of drones involved. Ukraine’s General Staff later confirmed the attacks on the Afipsky, Ilsky, Krasnodar and Astrakhan refineries in a Facebook post.
In the Seversky district of the Krasnodar region, where the Afipsky and Ilsky refineries are situated, administrative buildings at an oil refinery were damaged, local governor Veniamin Kondratyev reported on Telegram. Interfax noted that a fire covering 50 square meters (538 square feet) was extinguished by morning, with two people injured.
Additionally, drones targeted a military airfield in Yeysk during the broader attack on Krasnodar Krai.
Ukraine’s military claimed responsibility for the drone swarm attack, stating that drones were launched against the Afipskiy, Ilskiy, Krasnodar, and Astrakhan oil refineries and an intelligence center in southern Russia. Drones also targeted a preparation and storage area in the Krasnodar region, causing a series of explosions and a fire with subsequent detonation.
A security and defense source confirmed to the Kyiv Independent that a coordinated attack by the Security Service of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Navy’s missile forces struck the 167th training center at the Yeysk military airfield, where Shahed drones were stored.
Earlier, the Krasnodar Krai Operations Center announced that several districts in the region had experienced a massive drone attack. The strike on the Ilskyi refinery resulted in a 50-square-meter fire, with preliminary reports indicating two injuries. Local authorities stated that the fire had been extinguished.
In recent months, Ukrainian forces have conducted multiple drone strikes to disrupt Russia’s oil industry, which is vital to Moscow’s war efforts and military operations. In May, attacks on oil depots in Krasnodar Krai reportedly affected operations at the Slavyansk-on-Kuban and Tuapse refineries. (Related: Ukraine claims to be developing “unstoppable” AI-controlled drones that can attack targets on the battlefield.)
In March, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna stated that oil refineries in Russia are “absolutely legitimate targets” from a military standpoint. The Biden administration has previously expressed concern over Ukrainian drone strikes in Russia due to the risk of driving Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel. However, in recent weeks, President Joe Biden has reportedly given the green light for Ukraine to attack deep within Russia using U.S. weapons.
Brent crude prices are set for the first back-to-back weekly gain since early April, ending the week around $85 per barrel. Escalating conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East reflect a higher war risk premium that should be factored into Brent crude prices.
A major concern is that if Ukraine continues targeting Russian oil infrastructure, Moscow could retaliate by attacking energy infrastructure relied upon by the West. This includes the CPC pipeline, which carries oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the global market.
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